Your monthly coffee market debrief. Let’s look at the market movements since last month.
When we sent our last newsletter, the green coffee bean price was at $3.70/lb. Over the last month that price has fallen back to $3.46. As of this writing, Trading Economics is expecting coffee to trade at $4.10/lb by the end of 2025.
See below for what the current pricing looks like in the context of coffee pricing over the last 5 years.
MARKET DYNAMICS
The slight fall in prices was somewhat expected given the market dynamics discussed in our May newsletter. Those dynamics continued over the last 30 days, with the harvest in Brazil continuing to slightly exceed expectations.
However, the price in June, while 9% lower than in May, is still 53% higher than June 2024.
Macroeconomic indicators are still pointing towards a steady increase in price through the rest of the year, although potentially not as severe as experts were predicting last month. As of this writing, Trading Economics forecast prices to be $4.01/lb by the end of 2025, compared to a forecast of $4.10/lb in May.
RETAIL PRICING CHART
Everyday prices for Cold Brew Multiserve Coffee continued trending up in May, but they were accompanied by more intensive promotional spending, with TPR pricing consistently down compared to YAG.
This is a continuation of what we saw in April. Brands appear to be leaning into High/Low pricing in order to navigate the rising coffee costs while also encouraging more trial + adoption.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The market continues to be in a state of limbo due to uncertainty about tariffs — which will go into effect, how will that impact coffee directly based on country of origin, and how will that impact things like trade, packaging costs, and other indirect factors that impact the overall cost of importing coffee?
The last 30 days have not provided any clarity on that front, so companies continue to wait and watch.
